Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.074543 2.198875 2.329768 2.478352 2.642972 2.820507 3.027436
2025-09-21 1.865254 2.032891 2.217749 2.438487 2.697287 2.994164 3.365073
2025-09-28 1.723768 1.912642 2.127324 2.392573 2.716084 3.104195 3.615333
2025-10-05 1.659894 1.870648 2.116657 2.430093 2.826598 3.323055 4.011969
2025-10-12 1.609834 1.838369 2.111297 2.468517 2.935488 3.543764 4.431288
2025-10-19 1.564263 1.806766 2.102174 2.498138 3.031348 3.751905 4.855281
2025-10-26 1.506846 1.756123 2.064603 2.486111 3.067738 3.878417 5.173027
2025-11-02 1.455513 1.709786 2.028883 2.472509 3.098484 3.996576 5.489916
2025-11-09 1.402792 1.658746 1.983735 2.442218 3.101681 4.072056 5.745254
2025-11-16 1.353911 1.610277 1.939183 2.409315 3.097391 4.133761 5.983138
2025-11-23 1.322368 1.582889 1.920998 2.411439 3.143547 4.276353 6.381780
2025-11-30 1.299593 1.565879 1.915585 2.430657 3.215698 4.466093 6.897160
2025-12-07 1.258471 1.523397 1.874259 2.396727 3.205172 4.520699 7.167463
2025-12-14 1.218634 1.481297 1.831791 2.358891 3.185799 4.558207 7.410116
2025-12-21 1.179527 1.438849 1.787124 2.315373 3.154068 4.570498 7.600851
2025-12-28 1.168440 1.434177 1.795133 2.350937 3.252506 4.824169 8.375130
2026-01-04 1.158275 1.430221 1.803694 2.387339 3.354478 5.095674 9.263056
2026-01-11 1.146148 1.422975 1.806995 2.415387 3.443908 5.353696 10.194883
2026-01-18 1.123260 1.399804 1.786113 2.404000 3.463428 5.474761 10.795962
2026-01-25 1.101169 1.377083 1.765025 2.391119 3.479107 5.589310 11.413803
2026-02-01 1.075806 1.348994 1.735039 2.362426 3.464164 5.637589 11.847253
2026-02-08 1.050951 1.321004 1.704340 2.331245 3.442655 5.669490 12.240940
2026-02-15 1.036116 1.307024 1.694161 2.333258 3.482671 5.841060 13.164391